On 11 February 2025, the 2nd COMPASS workshop on impact attribution of disasters took place at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The event was filled with engaging and thought-provoking discussions on climate and impact attribution, while its structure (described below in detail) fostered in-depth conversations and interactions. The insights gained reaffirmed the significance of the COMPASS project!
Keynote presentations on the topic of climate and impact attribution:
- Dominik Paprotny (PIK), leader on exposure and vulnerability for project COMPASS and formerly principal investigator for attribution project FloodDrivers, introduced the topic of attribution and progress in the field since the first workshop.
- Sanne Muis (Deltares/Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam), leader of project COMPASS, updated on the progress and achievements of the project.
- Aloïs Tilloy (European Commission Joint Research Centre) presented the Pan-European impact attribution activities at the JRC.
- Freja Vamborg (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) updated the participants on the plans of the Copernicus Climate Change Service to operationalize attribution.
Posters session with posters presenting both COMPASS project and other scientific projects/achievements.
World Café discussion led by four moderators, group discussions were carried out on different aspects of impact attribution. At defined intervals, participants shuffled between groups in order to participate in all of the discussions by the end of the session. The moderators and topics were:
- Anaïs Couasnon (Deltares) and Daniel Cotterill (Met Office) discussed whether a rapid impact attribution assessment is worth sacrificing the accuracy of a more detailed study, which would be completed after interest in the particular extreme event has faded.
- Dominik Paprotny (PIK) explored with the participants the advantages and the possible pitfalls of including socioeconomic drivers in impact attribution studies
- Sanne Muis (Deltares) analysed whether there is a scientific benefit to attribution studies, or public communication is the primary goal.
- Martha Vogel and Christopher Jack (Red Cross Climate Centre) discussed if storyline attribution methods can be useful for scientific studies, as opposed to its predominant use as decision-making tools.
Panel discussion focused on the question how to effectively communicate attribution results to both the research community and the general public. The panelists highlighted the need for honest, fact-based communication of different drivers of impacts (also socioeconomic) and uncertainties involved, as well as better monitoring of the progress of adaption to climate extremes. The discussion featured four panelists:
- Bart van den Hurk (Deltares)
- Freja Vamborg (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
- Patrycja Enet (European MSP Platform/Aktis Hydraulics)
- Heidi Kreibich (GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences)
