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COMPASS “Compound extremes attribution of climate change: towards an operational service” is a collaborative project funded under the Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme. The project began in January 2024 and will run for 3 years.
The COMPASS project aims to develop a harmonised, yet flexible, methodological framework for climate and impact attribution of various hazard types, which is a crucial initial step towards the deployment of a European operational service. COMPASS will innovate by going from the attribution of single-driver extremes to the attribution of more complex extremes (including compounding, sequential and cascading hazard events) and enabling a shift from a hazard-centred analysis to an impact-centred perspective. Main novelties include event-based hazard and impact modelling using a multi-scale approach, the use of weather type analysis for better understanding the physical drivers that give rise compound extremes, and the use of contextualized storylines to communicate attribution results. Our framework will be validated and applied to a set of use cases that cover historical extremes for various hazard types and impact context, as well as extreme events happening during the project.
COMPASS will create a modular and scalable framework for on-the fly analysis, and thus transferable to other extremes and regions, and will lay the scientific foundation for the operational deployment as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Services. To promote the uptake of the project’s results, our data, methods and tools will be made openly available, while a web-based demonstrator will showcase the outputs of the use cases, and clear guidelines for climate attribution will be developed.
The overall implementation of the project is structured in 7 Work Packages (WP). Central in the project are the development of a methodological framework for the climate attribution of compound and sequential extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclones and compound flooding), and its validation and application in a set of Use Cases, covering different regions and hazards. The uptake and exploitation of our results will be promoted through a series of targeted dissemination and capacity development activities.
WP1 – Characterising compound extremes in current and future climates
WP1 provides the guidelines and modeling framework for simulation of various compound extremes in current and future climates. Existing data and models from the climate, hydrology and ocean domain will be assembled, while providing methods for refinement and bias adjustment to ensure sufficient accuracy for event-based analysis. Tools will be flexible, so they are scalable in their application in time and space. WP1 will provide the hazard data required for the climate attribution in WP2 and the Use Cases’ application in WP4 and WP5.
WP2 – Attribution frameworks in a physical context
WP2 extends the attribution framework for compound events and sequential events, as well as attribution of impacts. Various methods, including probabilistic analysis, weather type analysis and trend-based methods will be combined to derive robust conclusions. Additionally, we will develop a risk modeling extension of these methods that can account for impacts of an event (in WP3). The attribution framework will be implemented, tested and validated in the Use Cases (in WP4) and results will be showcased as a web-based demonstrator (in WP5).
WP3 – Enabling impact attribution by multi-scale modeling of exposure and vulnerability
WP3 develops methods for modeling dynamic exposure and vulnerability in the context of an event-based risk analysis. The exposure models and, where applicable, vulnerability models will enable impact attribution for both climate and socioeconomic drivers. WP3 constitutes a bridge between physical hazard drivers (WP1 & WP2) and implementation of the framework in the case studies and demonstrators (WP4 & WP5).
WP4 – Developing actionable climate information for events
WP4 is focused on the application of the COMPASS methodological framework to the set of Use Cases. Based on the hazard data and modeling framework (of WP1), specific historical events will be analysed to assess the influence of climate change (in WP2) as well as societal drivers (as per WP3) on the severity of the events. The hazard and impact synthesis will be supplemented with context-specific storylines and other communication methods to effectively convey the climate attribution results. The Polish Use Case, focusing on heat wave compounding with drought in Poland, will be run operationally.
WP5 – Demonstrator with steps towards an operational deployment
WP5 will provide automated, reproducible and open-source workflows with clear documentation. The results of the climate attribution surveys for the specific Use Cases will be showcased in a web-based demonstrator.
WP6 – Project management
WP6 is responsible for the overall management and coordination of the project. It will also run the Data Management Plan and manage the External Advisory Board. It will ensure the efficient and timely implementation of project activities and the communication with the EC.
WP7 – Dissemination and communication
WP7 will disseminate the project results, products and knowledge to a broad audience (local stakeholders and end-users, scientific, business and policy communities, and the general public), maximise the uptake of the foreground, and the potential for future exploitation. Following a dissemination and outreach plan, a portfolio of relevant activities will be implemented, such as webinars, a hackathon and science-policy dialogues. Moreover, based on the methodological framework developed in the previous WPs, we will compile a protocol for the climate attribution of compound extremes in an operational setting. WP7 will closely interact with all WPs and will seek synergetic activities with other projects and (inter)national initiatives.
COMPASS aims to develop a harmonised, yet flexible, methodological framework for climate and impact attribution of various complex extremes that includes compound, sequences and cascading hazard events
The COMPASS project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101135481
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or of the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HaDEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.