The COMPASS project recently released a “Counterfactual dataset of tropical cyclone-affected areas“.
The dataset contains high resolution simulations of factual and counterfactual maximum (across time of the event) flood depth and derived flooded areas associated with storm surges induced by tropical cyclones. The factual simulations are based on observed relative water levels, i.e. accounting for long-term sea level rise over the historical period. The counterfactual dataset is created by removing the long-term sea level rise from the water level inputs (Treu et al., 2024). In both cases, the information about TC tracks and wind intensities is derived from the International Best Tracks Archive (IBTrACS) covering the period from 1950 to 2024 To put the historical increase in flooded areas into perspective, we additionally provide data assuming 1m of relative sea level rise along all coastlines. All spatial maps are provided at a 30 arcsec (~1 km) spatial resolution and in netCDF format.
This dataset will be used for the second set of Use Cases (UCs) focusing on tropical cyclone attribution in the United States. More generally, we foresee this dataset to be of use for the broader scientific community interested in tropical cyclone attribution studies. It is particularly added to the climate-related forcing of the impact model evaluation and impact attribution part of the third phase of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).
The dataset (currently v1.0) is available in the ISIMIP repository (doi: 10.48364/ISIMIP.693793).
More information can be found in the following COMPASS project Deliverable:
Mengel, M. (2025): Counterfactual dataset of tropical cyclone-affected areas. Horizon Europe project COMPASS. Deliverable D2.6.
